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{
"events": {
"event": {
"event_number": 1,
"name": "conflict_start",
"description": "Tensions escalate between Iran and Israel",
"probability": 70,
"duration_days": 30,
"subevents": {
"event": {
"event_number": 2,
"name": "diplomatic_failure",
"description": "Diplomatic negotiations fail",
"probability": 60,
"duration_days": 15,
"subevents": {
"event": {
"event_number": 3,
"name": "military_clash",
"description": "Initial military clash at the border",
"probability": 50,
"duration_days": 10,
"subevents": {
"event": [
{
"event_number": 4,
"name": "escalation",
"description": "Conflict escalates into full-scale war",
"probability": 40,
"duration_days": 180,
"subevents": {
"event": [
{
"event_number": 5,
"name": "regional_involvement",
"description": "Other Middle Eastern countries get involved",
"probability": 30,
"duration_days": 365,
"subevents": {
"event": [
{
"event_number": 6,
"name": "ceasefire",
"description": "International powers broker a ceasefire",
"probability": 20,
"duration_days": 30
},
{
"event_number": 7,
"name": "prolonged_conflict",
"description": "Conflict continues for over a year",
"probability": 50,
"duration_days": 365
}
]
}
},
{
"event_number": 8,
"name": "international_intervention",
"description": "UN or other international organizations intervene",
"probability": 25,
"duration_days": 60
}
]
}
},
{
"event_number": 9,
"name": "containment",
"description": "Conflict is contained and doesn't escalate",
"probability": 30,
"duration_days": 90
}
]
}
},
"event": {
"event_number": 10,
"name": "sanctions",
"description": "Increased sanctions on Iran",
"probability": 70,
"duration_days": 180,
"subevents": {
"event": [
{
"event_number": 11,
"name": "iran_retaliates",
"description": "Iran retaliates with cyberattacks",
"probability": 40,
"duration_days": 60
},
{
"event_number": 12,
"name": "israel_response",
"description": "Israel responds with targeted airstrikes",
"probability": 50,
"duration_days": 60
}
]
}
}
}
},
"event": {
"event_number": 13,
"name": "diplomatic_success",
"description": "Successful diplomatic negotiations",
"probability": 40,
"duration_days": 30,
"subevents": {
"event": [
{
"event_number": 14,
"name": "peace_agreement",
"description": "Iran and Israel sign a peace agreement",
"probability": 20,
"duration_days": 60
},
{
"event_number": 15,
"name": "temporary_truce",
"description": "A temporary truce is established",
"probability": 30,
"duration_days": 30
}
]
}
}
}
}
}
}
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