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| { | |
| "events": { | |
| "event": { | |
| "event_number": 1, | |
| "name": "conflict_start", | |
| "description": "Tensions escalate between Iran and Israel", | |
| "probability": 70, | |
| "duration_days": 30, | |
| "subevents": { | |
| "event": { | |
| "event_number": 2, | |
| "name": "diplomatic_failure", | |
| "description": "Diplomatic negotiations fail", | |
| "probability": 60, | |
| "duration_days": 15, | |
| "subevents": { | |
| "event": { | |
| "event_number": 3, | |
| "name": "military_clash", | |
| "description": "Initial military clash at the border", | |
| "probability": 50, | |
| "duration_days": 10, | |
| "subevents": { | |
| "event": [ | |
| { | |
| "event_number": 4, | |
| "name": "escalation", | |
| "description": "Conflict escalates into full-scale war", | |
| "probability": 40, | |
| "duration_days": 180, | |
| "subevents": { | |
| "event": [ | |
| { | |
| "event_number": 5, | |
| "name": "regional_involvement", | |
| "description": "Other Middle Eastern countries get involved", | |
| "probability": 30, | |
| "duration_days": 365, | |
| "subevents": { | |
| "event": [ | |
| { | |
| "event_number": 6, | |
| "name": "ceasefire", | |
| "description": "International powers broker a ceasefire", | |
| "probability": 20, | |
| "duration_days": 30 | |
| }, | |
| { | |
| "event_number": 7, | |
| "name": "prolonged_conflict", | |
| "description": "Conflict continues for over a year", | |
| "probability": 50, | |
| "duration_days": 365 | |
| } | |
| ] | |
| } | |
| }, | |
| { | |
| "event_number": 8, | |
| "name": "international_intervention", | |
| "description": "UN or other international organizations intervene", | |
| "probability": 25, | |
| "duration_days": 60 | |
| } | |
| ] | |
| } | |
| }, | |
| { | |
| "event_number": 9, | |
| "name": "containment", | |
| "description": "Conflict is contained and doesn't escalate", | |
| "probability": 30, | |
| "duration_days": 90 | |
| } | |
| ] | |
| } | |
| }, | |
| "event": { | |
| "event_number": 10, | |
| "name": "sanctions", | |
| "description": "Increased sanctions on Iran", | |
| "probability": 70, | |
| "duration_days": 180, | |
| "subevents": { | |
| "event": [ | |
| { | |
| "event_number": 11, | |
| "name": "iran_retaliates", | |
| "description": "Iran retaliates with cyberattacks", | |
| "probability": 40, | |
| "duration_days": 60 | |
| }, | |
| { | |
| "event_number": 12, | |
| "name": "israel_response", | |
| "description": "Israel responds with targeted airstrikes", | |
| "probability": 50, | |
| "duration_days": 60 | |
| } | |
| ] | |
| } | |
| } | |
| } | |
| }, | |
| "event": { | |
| "event_number": 13, | |
| "name": "diplomatic_success", | |
| "description": "Successful diplomatic negotiations", | |
| "probability": 40, | |
| "duration_days": 30, | |
| "subevents": { | |
| "event": [ | |
| { | |
| "event_number": 14, | |
| "name": "peace_agreement", | |
| "description": "Iran and Israel sign a peace agreement", | |
| "probability": 20, | |
| "duration_days": 60 | |
| }, | |
| { | |
| "event_number": 15, | |
| "name": "temporary_truce", | |
| "description": "A temporary truce is established", | |
| "probability": 30, | |
| "duration_days": 30 | |
| } | |
| ] | |
| } | |
| } | |
| } | |
| } | |
| } | |
| } | |